The role of sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling

Abstract

Sensitivity is a measure of the effect of change in one factor on another factor. Sensitivity analysis is potentially useful in all phases of the modeling process: model formulation, model calibration and model verification. The sensitivity of model parameters should be recognized as a special case of the above general definition. Parametric sensitivity is a vital part of most optimization techniques. However, other facets of sensitivity need to be recognized. The time-dependent nature of sensitivity should be considered in the formulation of hydrologic models. A variety of simplified hydrologic models are used to demonstrate the potential of sensitivity in all phases of the modeling process. The failure to recognize and exploit the potential of sensitivity analysis results primarily from the inadequacy of the mathematical foundations of sensitivity. A comprehensive mathematical framework of sensitivity is provided and additional research needs are identified.