The role of Renminbi internationalization in China’s petroleum security: a causal analysis amidst global uncertainties

Abstract

ABSTRACT China’s import of petroleum resources increases in recent years despite structural reforms to the Chinese economy. Primary energy demand increased significantly amidst global uncertainties, and this is a premise for energy security concerns for the country. In this paper, we rely on monthly data spanning from January 2011 to December 2022 and incorporate the role of global economic uncertainty to examine the causal relationship between Renminbi internationalization (RMBI) and petroleum security in China. Based on the recent VAR-based time-varying Granger causality procedure, we found a significant bi-directional causality between RMBI and petroleum security. The findings imply that increasing acceptance of the Renminbi (RMB) in trade settlements and petroleum invoicing will promote China’s drive to achieve a sustainable and reliable supply of petroleum. However, we proffer some policy suggestions based on the empirical findings.