Abstract
Climate is one of many factors to be considered in adapting systems to environmental and societal change and often it is not the most important factor. Moreover, given considerable model inadequacies, irreducible uncertainties, and poor accessibility to model output, we may legitimately ask whether or not regional climate projections ought to have a central role in guiding climate change adaptation decisions. This question is addressed by analysing the value of regional downscaled climate model output in the management of complex socio-ecological systems (SESs) vulnerable to climate change. We demonstrate, using the example of the Dwesa–Cwebe region in South Africa, that the management of such systems under changing environmental and socio-economic conditions requires a nuanced and holistic approach that addresses cross-scale system interdependencies and incorporates “complexity thinking”. We argue that the persistent focus on increasing precision and skill in regional climate projections is misguided and does not adequately address the needs of society. However, this does not imply that decision makers should exclude current and future generations of regional climate projections in their management processes. On the contrary, ignoring such information, however uncertain and incomplete, risks the implementation of maladaptive policies and practices. By using regional climate projections to further explore uncertainties and investigate cross-scale system dependencies, such information can be used to aid understanding of how SESs might evolve under alternative future societal and environmental scenarios.
Highlights
Acknowledging complexity when responding to contemporary environmental and societal pressures requires us to think and behave differently
Given considerable model inadequacies, irreducible uncertainties, and poor accessibility to model output, we may legitimately ask whether or not regional climate projections ought to have a central role in guiding climate change adaptation decisions
This question is addressed by analysing the value of regional downscaled climate model output in the management of complex socio-ecological systems (SESs) vulnerable to climate change
Summary
Acknowledging complexity when responding to contemporary environmental and societal pressures requires us to think and behave differently. If management practices substantially change land use affecting surface runoff into the rivers feeding the SES of interest, evapotranspiration rates will respond and alter rates of atmospheric heat exchange, impacting the local climate and feeding back to the resource ecology of the SES An understanding of such system dynamics could constrain the available management options. To effectively manage the reserve and maintain the natural capital of the system, local government authorities and reserve officials must work with the local communities, acknowledging their needs and rights to the use of reserve resources (such as building materials and wood for fuel from the protected forest) and remaining sensitive to the challenges presented in a postapartheid South Africa. Decision makers must co-explore the system’s ecological, climate and socio-economic thresholds to better inform the assessment of appropriate adaptation options aimed at preserving the natural capital and empowering communities
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