The Role of Random Vorticity Stretching in Tropical Depression Genesis

Abstract

Abstract Tropical deep convection plays a key role in the tropical depression stage of tropical cyclogenesis by aggregating vorticity, but no existing theory can depict such a stochastic vorticity aggregation process. A vorticity probability distribution function (PDF) is proposed as a tool to predict the horizontal structure and wind speed of the tropical depression. The reason lies in the tendency for a vortex to adjust to an axisymmetric and monotonic vorticity structure. Assuming deep convection as independent and uniformly distributed vortex tube stretching events in the low–midtroposphere, repetitive vortex tube stretching will make the air column area shrink many times and significantly increase vorticity. A theory of the vorticity PDF is established by modeling the random stretching process as a Markov chain. The PDF turns out to be a weighted Poisson distribution, in good agreement with a randomly forced divergent barotropic model (weak temperature gradient model), and in rough agreement with a cloud-permitting simulation. The result shows that a stronger and sparser deep convective mode tends to produce more high-vorticity air columns, which leads to a more compact major vortex with a higher maximum wind. Based on the vorticity PDF theory, a parameterization of the eddy acceleration effect on the tangential flow is proposed.