Abstract
A better use of land and water resources will be necessary to meet the increasing demand for food in the Nile basin. Using a hydro-economic model along the storyline of three future political cooperation scenarios, we show that the future of food production in the Basin lies not in the expansion of intensively irrigated areas and the disputed reallocation of water, but in utilizing the vast forgotten potential of rainfed agriculture in the upstream interior, with supplemental irrigation where needed. Our results indicate that rainfed agriculture can cover more than 75% of the needed increase in food production by the year 2025. Many of the most suitable regions for rainfed agriculture in the Nile basin, however, have been destabilized by recent war and civil unrest. Stabilizing those regions and strengthening intra-basin cooperation via food trade seem to be better strategies than unilateral expansion of upstream irrigation, as the latter will reduce hydropower generation and relocate, rather than increase, food production.
Highlights
To study the influence of various forms of cooperation on the optimal allocation of land, water, and investments for maximum food production in the Nile Basin, the hydro-economic model WaterWise (WW) was applied
Where YTOT represents total gross margin (GM) (USD/yr), YLU the GM of land use (USD/yr), YHP the GM of hydropower (USD/yr), CLWM the costs of local water-management measures for supporting land use, CRWM are the costs of regional water management
This last option was not used in the Nile Basin application
Summary
To study the influence of various forms of cooperation on the optimal allocation of land, water, and investments for maximum food production in the Nile Basin, the hydro-economic model WaterWise (WW) was applied. Where YTOT represents total GM (USD/yr), YLU the GM of land use (USD/yr), YHP the GM of hydropower (USD/yr), CLWM the costs of local water-management measures for supporting land use (i.e., fixed and variable costs of local irrigation measures per hectare or per m3 of water [USD/yr]), CRWM are the costs of regional water management (i.e., maintenance costs for large canals and the costs of flow-through connections that involve pumping to support the river, canal, and reservoir system [USD/yr]) This last option was not used in the Nile Basin application. WW has external modules on water, food and energy providing the optimization model various land use and reservoir options to choose from (section S2) These options are interconnected through the WW network of river trajectories (arcs) and nodes, to which hydrotopes are linked, areas of similar soil and meteorological characteristics within a subcatchment (Figure S2).
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