Abstract
Lockdown policies applied worldwide to limit the spread of COVID-19, and mainly based on health considerations, have negatively impacted on public transport (PT) usage, suspected as a means for the virus spreading due to difficulties ensuring social distancing. This resulted not only in a setback to sustainable mobility, but also impacting on equity and social exclusion issues. The paper aimed to cover this topic, investigating the conjecture that the spread of the coronavirus is directly correlated to PT usage. A correlation analysis among the daily number of certified coronavirus cases and the PT trips measured in the day in which the contagions occurred was performed within the second wave in Italy. The appropriateness of the case study is twofold because Italy was one of the main European countries with a high mass contagion and because the vaccination campaign had not yet started in Italy. Estimation results show a high correlation (up to 0.87) between COVID-19 contagion and PT trips performed 22 days before. This threshold indicates that quarantine measures, commonly set at two weeks and based only on incubation considerations, were inadequate as a containment strategy, and may have produced a possible slowdown in identifying new cases and hence, in adopting mitigation policies. A cause–effect test was also implemented, concluding that there is a strong causal link between COVID-19 and PT trips. The main issues discussed in this research cover the transportation and the health filed but also laid the groundwork for ethical considerations concerning the right to mobility and social equity. Obtained results could yield significant insights into the context variables that influence the spread of the virus, also helping appropriate definition of restrictive policies, thereby ensuring a sustainable recovery and development of urban areas in the post-pandemic era.
Highlights
In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic after an unprecedented health crisis experienced worldwide due to SARS-CoV-2
The aim of the research was to perform a correlation analysis to verify the hypothesis according to which the daily new COVID-19 cases are directly related to the public transport (PT) trips observed several days before
The coronavirus pandemic has profoundly affected the public transport (PT) sector, with observed worldwide reductions in mobility trips of up to 90% during the lockdowns, without a full recovery even in countries that have experienced a significant reduction in contagion
Summary
In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic after an unprecedented health crisis experienced worldwide due to SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus or COVID-19 for short). Strict lockdown policies were applied worldwide to control the spread of the virus, such that contagion values reached a global minimum during the summer of 2020. Several EU countries lifted restrictive measures to assist summer tourism, allowing open travel in Europe [1]. Once the first wave appeared to have run its course, starting from the end of August 2020, a second wave hit the world even harder. Governments have been faced with a number of ethical issues, starting with the best policies to adopt to halt the spread of the virus.
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