The role of policy in social-ecological interactions of nitrogen management in the Mississippi River basin.

Abstract

Excess nitrogen (N) loading in the Mississippi River basin is a major water quality issue, encompassing large spatial scales and feedbacks between social and biophysical entities. Effective management depends on reductions in agricultural N loading, mainly from the Corn Belt region in the upper reaches of the basin. In this study, we evaluated the role of federal Nutrient Task Force policy on N management from 2000 to 2015. We analyzed trends in nitrate (NO3 - ) concentrations from monitoring data in 148 priority watersheds. We compared water quality trends with state nutrient reduction strategies, monitoring efforts, and land use. Of the 148 watersheds, 13 displayed a significant decrease in NO3 - concentrations, 24 displayed a significant increase, 51 displayed a nonsignificant trend, and 60 had insufficient data to analyze. We demonstrate that policy efforts on a large scale are slow to establish, but states and watersheds that showed signs of policy acting successfully could serve as examples for improved N management moving forward. Despite considerable variability, states with the most comprehensive strategies, evidenced by word count and presence of recommended elements, were almost exclusively located in the Corn Belt region. States with more thorough nutrient reduction strategies also tended to have a larger number of monitoring sites in priority watersheds (R=.42), demonstrating the potential for adaptive management. States with the most consistent improvements in NO3 - concentrations tended to have the most comprehensive policies, whereas variation in water quality trends was partly attributed to land use factors including slope and dominance of corn (Zea mays L.) and soy [Glycine max (L.) Merr.].