The role of peer groups in adolescents’ educational expectations: a stochastic actor-based model

Abstract

ABSTRACT Adolescent educational expectations predict educational attainment, which leads to labour-market success. Given peers’ similarity in educational expectations, it is methodologically challenging to differentiate whether adolescents select friends who are similar in their educational aspirations or whether adolescents influence each other’s educational expectations. To overcome this methodological challenge, the analysis utilizes stochastic actor-based modelling. This study uses survey data from the U.S. National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). The results show that selection effects may be more prominent than influence effects in the relationship between educational expectation and adolescent friendships. Educational interventions to promote friendship formation with peers with higher educational aspirations may not result in greater educational expectations. Family bonding is associated with greater educational aspirations. Greater support of the families through work–life balance public policies and tangible strategies for improving family bonding opportunities in schools and in local communities may be needed to increase educational aspirations among adolescents.