The role of oil and gas in China's energy strategy: an overview

Abstract

China is well endowed with energy resources, having large quantities of coal, oil, gas and hydropower, as well as tremendous solar, wind and biomass energy potential. It even has its own uranium. To date, the country has relied mainly on coal and hydropower to generate its electricity and on oil to power its vehicles. However, with climate change and consequent rising sea levels, increased incidence of drought, intense storms, etc., China, having become the world's largest emitter of CO2, is under strong international pressure to re-examine its energy strategy and find ways to reduce its carbon emissions. Thus, the government plans to greatly increase its use of natural gas in power generation. Gas emits less than half the CO2 that coal emits. It is argued here that over the next 20 years, massive imports of gas via pipeline and liquefied natural gas tankers, combined with the development of unconventional gas reserves in the country may partly substitute for the large quantities of coal currently being used to generate electricity, but will not likely completely replace them. As for transport fuels, China, like all other countries, has little choice but to continue relying on oil regardless of whether it is imported or China develops its own large-scale shale oil operations. There is no alternate fuel of the same density available at the same or better price. The use of biofuels and electric/hybrid vehicles will not supplant the use of gasoline or diesel in the near future. Thus, the role of oil and gas in China's energy strategy are set to remain very significant over the next 20 years.