The role of multiple regression and exploratory data analysis in the development of leukemia incidence risk models for comparison of radionuclide air stack emissions from nuclear and coal power industries

Abstract

Risks associated with power generation must be identified to make intelligent choices between alternate power technologies. Radionuclide air stack emissions for a single coal plant and a single nuclear plant are used to compute the single plant leukemia incidence risk and total industry leukemia incidence risk. Leukemia incidence is the response variable as a function of radionuclide bone dose for the six proposed dose response curves considered. During normal operation a coal plant has higher radionuclide emissions than a nuclear plant and the coal industry has a higher leukaemia incidence risk than the nuclear industry, unless a nuclear accident occurs. Variation of nuclear accident size allows quantification of the impact of accidents on the total industry leukemia incidence risk comparison. The leukemia incidence risk is quantified as the number of accidents of a given size for the nuclear industry leukemia incidence risk to equal the coal industry leukemia incidence risk. The general linear model is used to develop equations that relate the accident frequency required for equal industry risks to the magnitude of the nuclear emission. Exploratory data analysis revealed that the relationship between the natural log of accident number versus the natural log of accident size is linear.