The role of modelling in predicting rabies and understanding the impact of control measures.

Abstract

Rabies is probably the most commonly modelled disease as both its epidemiology and host dynamics are well understood. Models are simplifications of reality and there are different approaches to achieving these representations. Over time, modelling has moved from simple mathematical methods towards more realistic biological models that incorporate spatial and individual variation. In this article, the author reviews models that have increased our understanding of actions taken to manage disease. The most developed of these focus on fox (Vulpes vulpes) rabies in Europe, where a suite of models has helped researchers to explore fox management options and the complications caused by other potential hosts, such as raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides). Models of dog (Canis familiaris) rabies support the idea of a 70% vaccine threshold for disease elimination and are now being used to explore and optimise management methods, combining vaccination with either surgical sterilisation or the use of chemical sterilisation. Future challenges are also identified, such as the need to develop practical management models in other hosts, and to explore different Lyssavirus strains in bats.