The role of mobility in epidemic dynamics

Abstract

Here we modeled and simulated disease spreading by means of a mechanistic stochastic model on metapopulations. Different network sizes, mobility rates and immunity duration for a susceptible–infected–recovered–susceptible (SIRS) like process are systematically explored. A transitory behavior was identified in the pathogen persistence where the mobility rate plays an unexpected role in the epidemic spread: a peak in the persistence relative to the mobility rate grow observed is closely related to the susceptible individuals’ density. This effect predicts a threshold invasion process which indicates critical values where the epidemic spreading dies out or persists. We showed that the decrease in the hosts abundance reduces the epidemic’s lifetime. These results point out new information about epidemic spreading and may give insights to improve decision making policies concerning travel restrictions strategies.