The role of migration and demographic change in small island futures

Ricardo Safra de Campos,Laurens H. Speelman,Robert J. Nicholls

doi:10.1177/01171968211044082

Abstract

Low-lying atoll islands are especially threatened by anticipated sea-level rise, and migration is often mentioned as a potential response of these island societies. Further, small island states are developing population, economic and adaptation policies to plan the future. Policies, such as raising of islands or land reclamation, require a long-term vision on populations and migration. However, population and migration systems in small island settings are poorly understood. To address this deficiency requires an approach that considers changing environmental and socio-economic factors and individual migration decision-making. This article introduces the conceptual model of migration and explores migration within one small island nation, the Maldives, as an example. Agent-based simulations of internal migration from 1985–2014 are used as a basis to explore a range of potential demographic futures up to 2050. The simulations consider a set of consistent demographic, environmental, policy and international migration narratives, which describe a range of key uncertainties. The capital island Malé has experienced significant population growth over the last decades, growing from around 67,000 to 153,000 inhabitants from 2000 to 2014, and comprising about 38 percent of the national population in 2014. In all future narratives, which consider possible demographic, governance, environmental and globalization changes, the growth of Malé continues while many other islands are effectively abandoned. The analysis suggests that migration in the Maldives has a strong inertia, and radical change to the environmental and/or socio-economic drivers would be needed for existing trends to change. Findings from this study may have implications for national development and planning for climate change more widely in island nations.

Highlights

Global analyses suggest that island regions will experience the largest relative increase in flood risk due to sea-level rise in the coming century (Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010)
Empirical data and simulations were lacking, a gap which is addressed by this study. This analysis shows that the Maldives has been characterized by an active migration system over the last few decades, with many islands having declining populations and a large urbanization trend around the capital Male
Maleis already densely populated, and the agent-based prognoses show it is unlikely that the Hulhumaleisland expansion will provide any release of the population pressure on Male

Summary

Introduction

Global analyses suggest that island regions will experience the largest relative increase in flood risk due to sea-level rise in the coming century (Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010). Related drivers of risk include sea-level rise, storms, increasing air and sea surface temperatures, declining ocean pH (the so-called ocean acidification) and changing rainfall patterns (Nurse et al, 2014). These in turn are likely to impact the ecosystems (on which island residents depend), including coastal erosion and inundation, salinization of freshwater lenses, coral bleaching, fisheries and agriculture (Nurse et al, 2014). Impacts on these ecosystems could in turn influence various key economic sectors, such as tourism and ports/shipping, that rely on them (e.g., diving tourism and harbor infrastructure) (Kelman and West, 2009; Nurse et al, 2014)

Methods

Results

Conclusion