The Role of Iran's Future Liquid Natural Gas Supply in the Eu's Energy Security

Abstract

Global gas demand will surge by around 50% until 2030 and more than 50% of all interregional gas trading will be conducted by LNG carriers. The EU will be the first gas importer by the end of the next decade, while the Union will import around 80% of the gas and LNG it will need during the next decade. In addition, the EU is not interested in supporting the status quo in its gas and LNG policies and decided to decrease its huge dependency on Russian gas. Therefore, diversification of gas and LNG suppliers is at the top of the EU energy agenda.Iran likewise is dissatisfied with its share in the global gas markets and is similarly not interested in supporting the status quo in its gas and LNG policies. For this reason, diversification of LNG suppliers is at the top of Tehran's Energy Outlook and Grand Strategy for the period towards 1404/2025. All the conditions are in place for Iran to assume an important role in the supplying of LNG toward the EU in the near future. However, it depends on changing the development of relations and the lifting of sanctions against Iran. Accordingly, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been reached on June 30, 2015 after 22 months intensive negotiations between the EU/E3+3 and Islamic Republic of Iran. If this deal is fully implemented, the JCPOA will result in lifting of all sanctions targeting Tehran's nuclear programme, especially those with regard to energy industries.This article examines the development and current situation of Iran's LNG industry, and looks at its prospects with particular regard to the energy needs of the EU, following the JCPOA.