The role of investor sentiment and market belief in forecasting V-shaped disposition effect: Evidence from a Bayesian learning process with DSSW model

Abstract

By using the trading data and corporate financial data from 2010 to 2022 in Korean stock market, we combine the Bayesian learning process with the DSSW model to investigate the size and specific manifestations of the disposition effect when market belief is different from investors' irrational beliefs. We find that there is a significant negative correlation between investor sentiment and the investor disposition effect. Moreover, affected by sentiment, the performance of investor disposition effect in the bull market and the bear market is quite opposite. The conclusion of this paper has certain theoretical and practical significance for understanding the disposition effect of investors, optimizing investors' selling decisions, and strengthening the construction of a basic system of the capital market.