The role of indirect oil and natural gas revenues in the Russian government budget

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Russian federal and consolidated government budgets accrue large revenues directly from oil and natural gas, mostly from royalties and export fees. We use Russian Input-Output tables and other economic statistics to estimate how much revenue flowed to these budgets indirectly due to government spending of direct revenues in 2016–21. Although the addition of indirect revenues to the federal budget is modest (8–10 Russian rubles per 100 rubles spent), the corresponding increase in consolidated budget is quite sizable (26–30 rubles per 100 rubles spent). Given the high degree of political and economic centralization in Russia, the impact on the consolidated budget is more important than the impact on the federal budget. In addition, we speculate about the changing role of oil and natural gas budget revenues in the current environment and the near future.