Abstract
Abstract. There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4), black carbon aerosols (BC), tropospheric ozone (O3) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential) HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.
Highlights
CO2 and N2Ort(he.gS., syese tSemmith et al, 2012), and are referred (SLCPs)
With the phase-out of CFCs under the Montreal Protocol completed in 1996 in developed countries and in 2010 in developing countries (UNEP, 2010), and with the scheduled phase-out of HCFCs by 2030 in developed countries, and 2040 in developing countries (UNEP, 2007), HFCs are increasingly being used as alternatives in applications that traditionally used CFCs, HCFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODSs) to meet much of the demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, heating and thermalinsulating foam production (Velders et al, 2012)
The 0.4 W m−2 is equal to nearly 30 to 45 % of CO2 forcing increase by 2050, or about the same forcing contributed by current CO2 emissions from the transportation sector (IEA, 2011)
Summary
CO2 and N2O (nitrous oxEidae)rt(he.gS., syese tSemmith et al, 2012), and are referred (SLCPs). Molina and Rowland (1974) identified the potent stratospheric ozone depleting effects of CFCs. Halocarbons are used as refrigerants, propellants, cleaning and foam blowing agents, and fire extinguishers, etc. This was followed, within a year, by the discovery of the potent greenhouse effect of the halocarbons CFC-11 and CFC-12 (Ramanathan, 1975) Many studies confirmed this finding and global average lifetime, weighted by the production of the various HFCs in commercial use, is about 15 yr, with a range of 1 to 50 yr (TOabclee1a).nBSecacuiseenthceelifetimes of the SLCPs are much shorter than that of CO2, a significant portion of which remains in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia, the radiative forcing by SLCPs will decrease significantly within weeks to a few decades after their emissions are reduced
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