The Role of Forest Stands Characteristics on Formation of Exterior Migratory Outbreak Spots by the Siberian Silk Moth Dendrolimus sibiricus (Tschetv.) during Population Collapse

Abstract

The characteristics of Abies sibirica Ledeb.- and Pinus sibirica Du Tour dominated forests stands in outbreak spots formed during a Dendrolimus sibiricus outbreak in 2014–2017 were studied at the stage of population collapse (east of the West Siberian Plain and western foothills of the Yenisei Range). The research was based on the data obtained during ground surveys conducted in 2016 when stands characteristics, the Siberian silk moth population density, and defoliation level were recorded. We classified the studied stands using decision trees and random forest algorithms to identify the key characteristics that determine the formation of outbreak spots. The classification results showed that the characteristics of the detected outbreak spots differ significantly from those previously described for dark coniferous stands of the southern taiga in Siberia. The highest probability of the outbreak spot occurrence in the study area was revealed for stands with the following characteristics: moderately moist site; Siberian stone pine and Siberian fir take 40% or more of stem volume; age of less than 105 years. Another group of forest stands under threat are those sharing the following characteristics: large area (more than 60 ha); stand homogeneity; ground vegetation is dominated by feather mosses; age of more than 120 years; Picea obovata Ledeb. takes a significant share in a stem volume. Such characteristics indicate that during the population collapse, the Siberian silk moth forms outbreak spots in stands that either undergo an early successional stage after previous outbreak or have been slightly damaged during the previous outbreaks due to unfavorable habitat conditions.