The role of emerging technologies in Canada's electricity system transition

Abstract

A significant transition in Canada's electricity system is needed to achieve the zero-emission target that has been set for 2035. Many studies have charted possible decarbonization pathways to achieve this target, but most focus on commercially available generation technologies. In this study, we modify and deploy the electricity system planning model, COPPER, to explore the role of emerging technologies in Canada's electricity system transition under a suite of plausible scenarios. Results show that, if developed and deployed, low- or non-emitting thermal technologies alongside offshore wind could contribute to the transition on the national scale, but specific adoption patterns differ by province: provinces that must phase out fossil fuel generation add natural gas with carbon capture and storage to provide dispatchable capacity with low operation cost; provinces with an emissions cap or inflexible network integrate hydrogen combustion that operates as peaking facilities; offshore wind and small modular reactors are part of the optimal mix for emissions constrained provinces or provinces with a flexible network, respectively. Since the best-suited technologies differ by region, provinces should explore available opportunities, including emerging technology, identify suitable options, and leverage them to facilitate their electricity system transitions.