Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify the technical solution space for future fully renewable energy systems that stays within a sustainable biomass demand. In the transition towards non-fossil energy and material systems, biomass is an attractive source of carbon for those demands that also in the non-fossil systems depend on high density, carbon containing fuels and feedstocks. However, extensive land use is already a sustainability challenge and an increase in future demands threat to exceed global sustainable biomass potentials which according to an international expert consensus is around 10 – 30 GJ/person/year in 2050. Our analytical review of 16 scenarios from 8 independent studies of fully renewable energy system designs, and synthesis of 9 generic system designs, reveals the significance of the role of electrification and hydrogen integration for building a fully renewable energy system which respects the global biomass limitations. The biomass demand of different fully renewable energy system designs was found to lie in the range of 0 GJ/person/year for highly integrated, electrified, pure electrofuel scenarios with up to 25 GJ/person/year of hydrogen to above 200 GJ/person/year for poorly integrated, full bioenergy scenarios with no electrification or hydrogen integration. It was found that a high degree of system electrification and hydrogen integration of at least 15 GJ/person/year is required to stay within sustainable biomass limits.

Highlights

  • In 2005, with a global population of less than 7 billion people [1], the so-called Human Acquired Net Primary Production (HANPP) was around 220 EJ per year [2], i.e. the total net biomass harvest due to human activities

  • This section consists of four parts: 1) the immediate relationship between biomass and hydrogen integration, 2) a comparison of the generic design strategies and the reviewed scenarios, 3) an analysis of how the degree of electrification influence the biomass and hydrogen relationship, and 4) a perspectivation part

  • We found that electrification of the transport and heating sectors allows a biomass demand below this point, from a very low degree of electrification leading to a biomass demand of around 110 GJ/person/ year to a very high degree of electrification leading to around 40 GJ/ person/year

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Summary

Introduction

In 2005, with a global population of less than 7 billion people [1], the so-called Human Acquired Net Primary Production (HANPP) was around 220 EJ per year [2], i.e. the total net biomass harvest due to human activities Of this harvest, 35–55 EJ per year were used to provide energy services [3], 20–30 EJ/year for roundwood, paper, and cardboard production [4], and the remainder being used mainly for food and animal feed. According to the United Nations [6], the world’s population is projected to reach 9.8 billion people in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100 If this population growth comes alongside a significant general increase in welfare per capita and people shift their diets towards more meat it would result in a dramatic increase in demands for land for animal feed production [7]

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