The Role of Economic Prognoses in the Modelling of Fiscal and Monetary Levies of the Albanian Economy

Abstract

"The purpose of the research was to demonstrate possible options for the development of the Albanian economy in 2023 and to provide some advice for monetary policy in the country. The main methods used in the research were modelling, formalisation, historical and some others. The authors forecast that the Albanian economy will decelerate in 2023, based on an analysis of some key macroeconomic factors. Thus, the research forecasts the country’s GDP level based on quarterly data for the last 12 years and develops a factor analysis of the country’s development over the last two years using time series analysis. The main factors considered for this forecast are the inflation rate, changes in benchmark interest rates, and the level of public and private investment in the Albanian economy. Thus, this research provides new knowledge for the National Bank of Albania to develop its monetary policy based on the interest rate, inflation and public investment in the next year’s budget."