Abstract

AbstractDebates over the future of the UK's traditional decadal census have led to the exploration of supplementary data sources, which could support the provision of timely and enhanced statistics on population and housing in small areas. This paper reviews the potential value of a number of commercial datasets before focusing on high temporal resolution household electricity load data collected via smart metering. We suggest that such data could provide indicators of household characteristics that could then be aggregated at the census output area level to generate more frequent official small area statistics. These could directly supplement existing census indicators or even enable development of novel small area indicators. The paper explores this potential through preliminary analysis of a ‘smart meter‐like’ dataset, and when set alongside the limited literature to date, the results suggest that aggregated household load profiles may reveal key household and householder characteristics of interest to census users and national statistical organisations. The paper concludes that complete coverage, quasi‐real time reporting, and household level detail of electricity consumption data in particular could support the delivery of population statistics and area‐based social indicators, and we outline a research programme to address these opportunities. © 2015 The Authors. Population, Space and Place published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Highlights

  • Provision of area-based population statistics in the UK is underpinned by the decadal census of housing and population as a crucial source of consistent baseline population estimates and robust local area statistics

  • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) review of the strengths and weaknesses of the current census recognised that governmental administrative data, or data held by commercial organisations, could support the production of more frequent census-type statistics (Skinner et al, 2013; ONS, 2014b)

  • Whilst we acknowledge that these observations are based on a small sample of households, they are all the more encouraging given that the 95 households used from the University of Southampton Household Energy Monitoring Study (UoS-E) dataset are broadly similar in terms of their characteristics

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

Provision of area-based population statistics in the UK is underpinned by the decadal census of housing and population as a crucial source of consistent baseline population estimates and robust local area statistics. Beckel et al (2013) used the same data to develop a classification system, which they claim is able to estimate household characteristics, including income, number of residents, and floor area with accuracy levels of up to 80% Whilst these studies are both valuable examples of the potential use of these datasets, neither seeks to derive population statistics at the small area level. Caroll et al (2013) made use of the same dataset to assess the feasibility of determining household composition from smart meter data with the explicit aim of supporting national statistical organisations in the production of population statistics They recognised that new techniques for handling, storing, and analysing the volumes of household level data produced would be needed, and they attempted to reduce the volume of data by deriving a series of summary indicators from load profiles. There is potential that smart metered electricity consumption data of this nature could afford value as a potential indicator of household income, especially if underlying confounding characteristics, such as household composition, are known, as explored

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