Abstract
The adoption rate of certified climate-resilient crop seedling varieties in developing countries is generally low, impacting on the ability of smallholder perennial crop farmers to adapt to climate change. Given the long-lived nature of perennial crop investments and the high level of uncertainty regarding both the quality of the seedlings and the climate to which they will be exposed as mature trees, there are clear linkages to farmers’ subjective beliefs regarding yield differentials between certified and uncertified seedlings, risk behaviours, and time preferences. We consider these aspects using a recently developed survey-based tool for measuring risk and time preferences and link those to stated preferences and observations on the adoption of certified seedlings. Results show that farmers’ beliefs regarding yield and variance of yields of certified and uncertified seedling along with the risk attitudes are significant correlates with seedling choice behaviours. Our results also indicate that information asymmetries in the certified seedling market may play a role in limiting the benefits of certification programs both due to cheating and due to lower levels of adoption.
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