The role of carbon capture, utilization and storage in realizing China's carbon neutrality: A source-sink matching analysis for existing coal-fired power plants

Abstract

China's carbon neutrality target before 2060 requires a significant CO2 emissions reduction for the power industry. The application of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology in coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) can significantly reduce the CO2 emissions while avoiding stranded assets loss; however, its contribution to carbon neutrality remains unclear. Based on a CCUS source-sink matching analysis, this paper investigates the role of CO2 emissions reduction of existing CFPPs in realizing China's carbon neutrality. This research yielded several important findings. (1) During 2020–2060, China's existing 584 CFPPs (670 GW) will totally lock in associated CO2 emissions of 60.87 Gt CO2, and have the CCUS retrofitting potential of 136–560 GW, contributing to the cumulative CO2 emissions reduction of 5.46–38.48 Gt depending on different deployment time (2025, 2030, and 2035) and maximum transport distance (100 km, 250 km, and 800 km); (2) The best window for retrofitting China's existing CFPPs is quite short and will soon be closed, because the cumulative mitigation potential will drop by 3.76–17.14 Gt (over 40%) if the deployment time is delayed by 10 years from 2025; (3) The geographical consistency of matched CFPPs and storage sites provides great opportunities for the development of CCUS clusters in Bohai Bay Basin, South Huabei Basin, Subei Basin, Songliao Basin, and Junggar Basin; (4) Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui, Hebei, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Tianjin are identified as the highest priority for large-scale CCUS deployment considering that they have low-cost opportunities for CO2 transportation; (5) CFPPs in Heilongjiang, Shanxi and Jilin are more sensitive to the injection rate capacity of nearby storage sites; (6) 300 km are highly suggested to be the upper limit of transport distance especially for those CFPPs targeting deep saline aquifers (DSA) sites. This study provides low-cost CCUS opportunities for provinces and even power plants, as well as support government policymaking, especially in the appropriate length of onshore pipelines and the locations of CCUS hubs.