The role of BRICS countries in the optimal low-carbon transition path for sustainable development

Abstract

With the development of industrialization, greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities, especially carbon dioxide emissions, continue to increase. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) account for a significant share of global carbon emissions. This study focuses on the BRICS countries as the subject of inquiry, employing carbon emission-related data spanning the temporal range from 2000 to 2020. This study systematically assesses the interrelationships among variables using the Pearson correlation analysis and Granger causality test. Variables exhibiting pronounced correlation and causality, as discerned from the analytical outcomes, are subsequently identified and selected for further examination. Use the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) to simulate the Rcp-ref scenario (baseline scenario) and the Rcp2.6 scenario (assuming that the temperature will not rise by 2 °C), and compare the optimal paths of key variables in the two scenarios, and draw the following conclusions. (1) By the end of this century, the total carbon emissions of the BRICS countries under Rcp2.6 scenario will be 6139MTC less than those under Rcp-ref scenario. (2) Compared with the Rcp-ref scenario, in the Rcp2.6 scenario, the proportion of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal in the main energy consumption significantly reduces, while the proportion of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and biomass increases. It is worth noting that the proportion of nuclear is significantly rising. (3) The demand for electricity increases significantly in the Rcp2.6 scenario. This study reveals the specific directions for improving the energy structure of BRICS countries to achieve the global average temperature rise of no more than 2 °C. It provides suggestions for the future policies of these countries' governments. In addition, BRICS countries should focus on observing changes in some factors, such as the increase in nuclear energy consumption and the increase in electricity demand. The reasons behind the changes in these factors are the direction of future research.