Abstract
Do aspirations to migrate predict subsequent behavior? Although research considers a migration orientation as indicative of future migration, no work establishes an empirical link in Mexico, which is the origin of a large number of migrants to the United States. Building upon the general model of migration decision-making proposed by De Jong (2000), this research uses two waves of the Mexican Family Life Survey to longitudinally assess two stages in the migration process. The first stage focuses on the moment at which an individual aspires to intermunicipal, interstate, and international migration but a move has yet to occur. The second stage longitudinally assesses the link between these three types of migration aspirations and subsequent behavior. Results show that aspiring to migrate to the US predicts subsequent migration to the US. Similarly, aspirations to intermunicipal and interstate migration are predictive of subsequent intermunicipal and interstate migration.
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