Abstract
AbstractThe nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade‐long slowdown in surface warming, the so‐called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges” (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a “business as usual” scenario. For “CO2 stabilisation” scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.
Highlights
In the early 21st century, the measured trend in global surface atmospheric temperature (SAT) was significantly reduced compared to previous decades [Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013; IPCC, 2013]
From our multimodel analysis of historical and future likelihood of hiatus and surge events, we have found that the hiatus of the early 21st century appears to be extremely unlikely: likelihood less than 2%
This is consistent with previous analyses suggesting that only 10 CMIP5 members over 262 produce a decadal hiatus during this period [Meehl et al, 2014]
Summary
In the early 21st century, the measured trend in global surface atmospheric temperature (SAT) was significantly reduced compared to previous decades [Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013; IPCC, 2013] This recent unpredicted hiatus has led to an increasing body of work focused on understanding it [Meehl et al, 2011; Katsman and Oldenborgh, 2011; Watanabe et al, 2013; Meehl et al, 2013; Balmaseda et al, 2013; Maher et al, 2014; Clement and DiNezio, 2014; Drijfhout et al, 2014; England et al, 2014, 2015; Rajaratnam et al, 2015].
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
