Abstract
Brexit became an important subject not only for academics but also for international institutions, research centers and consultancy companies, think tanks and independent experts. The aim of this article is to: (1) provide a general approach of the literature; (2) see how the effects of Brexit are explained in such short-term approach and how important are the economic issues in the debates; (3) identify directions for future research, arguing that a new field of study emerged. The estimation of economic impact of Brexit has generated a reach literature in a short period, which identifies the main issues, rather than providing strong results and conclusions. In order to fill this gap, our paper provide a systematic review of the most important contributions and group them in four research directions: overall economic implications of Brexit; Brexit and trade; migration and labour market; financial issues and Brexit.
Highlights
Just a few years ago, the economic science failed in predicting the big crisis of 2008–2009
The paper provides a systematic review of the most important contributions and group them in four research directions. The results of this analysis are structured as follows: overall economic implications of Brexit measured by GDP; Brexit and trade; migration and labour market; financial issues and Brexit
Following the bibliographic study of the economic implications of Brexit, the research identifies the main directions that have emerged in last years and to analyse the most important ones, considering the number and the relevance of the published scientific contributions
Summary
Just a few years ago, the economic science failed in predicting (and explaining) the big crisis of 2008–2009. Many people, both academics and non-academics, thought that the failure is related to inappropriate methods, such as use of mathematical models as the main tool of learning about the complex reality of the global economy. Almost 10 years later, economists are facing some new challenges, most of them linked to political evolutions, but with strong economic implications. Brexit is probably the most provocative of these, because of the novelty of the processes involved. The result of the Referendum of 23 June 2016, when 51.9% of voting citizens decided that UK should live EU, was against all the mainstream economists’ opinions. In a recent book, Applelbaum (2019) mentioned that Milton Friedman wrote in his
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