The road to sustainability

Abstract

The oil shock of the 1970s triggered worldwide awareness of oil dependency and launched a search for alternative sources of energy. But three decades on, these efforts have barely had an impact: oil still accounts for almost 40% of global energy use, and fossil fuels make up 85%. The US, for example, imported 20% of its oil in 1970; today the figure is 60%, and other countries import even larger fractions of the oil they consume. The problem of oil dependency is compounded by cost. Before the current recession, the price of oil peaked at $140 a barrel – five times its price in 2002 and 10 times its price in 1976 – rewriting the economics of transportation, food, manufacturing and trade that underlie the operation of society. In addition to dependency and cost, energy security is a pervasive threat. The concentration of oil production in a few regions of the world makes the supply of oil vulnerable to unpredictable events such as weather, terrorism, and geopolitical manoeuvring. Because oil provides so much of our energy, severe reductions in its flow would dramatically change the way we live.