The Road Not Taken. Effects of residential mobility on local electoral turnout

Abstract

Although the effects of population stability on electoral turnout rates are relatively well-known, the role of the characteristics of hosting cities in this relationship are largely unexplored. This paper analyzes the moderating effect of city size on the relationship between residential mobility and electoral turnout. Residential mobility is known to depress civic engagement and political participation at the local level. We argue that this relationship is moderated by the characteristics of hosting cities, approached through city size. The main argument is that smaller cities offer better chances to newcomers to reconnect to the political process. Working with census data from more than 5500 different municipalities, we find that city size has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between residential mobility and turnout. On the one hand, residential mobility and city size do have separate negative effects on turnout, but on the other, the expected negative effects of mobility on turnout are actually stronger in larger than in smaller municipalities. Results indicate, therefore, that smaller communities not only provide more favorable conditions for political participation to their life-long residents, but they also seem to offer newcomers better chances to reconnect to the political process than larger cities.