Abstract

A risk assessment model for predicting the risk of haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn (HDFN) in future pregnancies following the transfusion of Rh(D)-positive red blood cell (RBC)-containing products to females of childbearing potential (FCP) was developed, accounting for the age that the FCP is transfused in various countries. The HDFN risk prediction model included the following inputs: risk of FCP death in trauma, Rh(D) alloimmunization rate following Rh(D)-positive RBC transfusion, expected number of live births following resuscitation, probability of carrying an Rh(D)-positive fetus, the probability of HDFN in an Rh(D)-positive fetus carried by an alloimmunized mother. The model was implemented in Microsoft R Open, and one million FCPs of each age between 18 and 49years old were simulated. Published data from eight countries, including the United States, were utilized to generate country-specific HDFN risk estimates. The risk predictions showed similar characteristics for each country in that the overall risk of having a pregnancy affected by HDFN was higher if the FCP was younger when she received her Rh(D)-positive transfusion than if she was older. In the United States, the overall risk of HDFN if the FCP was transfused at age 18 was 3·4% (mild: 1·20%, moderate: 0·45%; severe: 1·15%; IUFD: 0·57%); the risk was approximately 0% if the FCP was 43years or older at the time of transfusion. This model can be used to predict HDFN outcomes when establishing transfusion policies as it relates to the administration of Rh(D)-positive products for massively bleeding FCPs.

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