Abstract

Banana production landscapes in the African Great Lakes Region (AGLR) have been under immense pressure from Xanthomonas wilt (XW) disease over the past two decades. XW, first reported on banana in central Uganda and eastern DR Congo in 2001, has since spread to the entire AGLR. XW is currently spreading westwards from hot spots in eastern DR Congo highlands, putting the plantain (Musa AAB genome) belt of central and west Africa at risk. In-depth understanding of the key variables responsible for disease spread, current hotspots, and vulnerable landscapes is crucial for disease early warning and management. We mapped aggregated disease distribution and hotspots in the AGLR and identified vulnerable landscapes across African banana production zones. Available data on disease prevalence collected over 11 years was regressed against environmental and expert developed covariates to develop the AGLR XW hotspots map. For the Africa-wide risk map, precipitation, distance to hotspots, degree of trade in fresh banana products, production zone interconnectedness and banana genotype composition were used as covariates. In the AGLR, XW was mainly correlated to precipitation and disease/banana management. Altitude and temperature had unexpectedly low effects, possibly due to an overriding impact of tool-mediated spread which is part of the management covariate. In the AGLR, the eastern part of DR Congo was a large hotspot with highest vulnerability. Apart from endemic zones in the AGLR and Ethiopia, northern Mozambique was perceived as a moderate risk zone mainly due to the predominance of ‘Bluggoe’ (Musa ABB type) which is highly susceptible to insect-vectored transmission. Presence of XW hotspots (e.g. eastern DR Congo) and vulnerable areas with low (e.g. north-western Tanzania) or no disease (e.g. Congo basin, western DR Congo and northern Mozambique) pressure suggest key areas where proactive measures e.g. quarantines and information sharing on XW diagnosis, epidemiology, and control could be beneficial.

Highlights

  • More than one third of Africa’s banana (Musa spp.) production, or nearly 11% of world production, comes from the African Great Lakes region (AGLR), i.e., Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo), Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda [1], which is a centre of diversity of East African highland bananas and plantains [2, 3]

  • High spread rates have been reported in lower altitude areas (1500 m) of eastern DR Congo [10]

  • Pearson’s correlation between Xanthomonas wilt (XW) incidence and all covariates were significant at the p = 0.05 level, except for the two covariates market and vegetation squared (Vegsq) (Table 3)

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Summary

Introduction

More than one third of Africa’s banana (Musa spp.) production, or nearly 11% of world production, comes from the African Great Lakes region (AGLR), i.e., Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo), Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda [1], which is a centre of diversity of East African highland bananas and plantains [2, 3]. Banana provides 30–60% of food energy needs for over 70 million people in this region [4, 5] and contributes to incomes of farm households and businessmen along the value chain of the crop [6, 7]. In the AGLR, it was first observed in 2001 in central Uganda [9] and eastern DR Congo [10], and has over a period of a decade spread to the whole AGLR [11,12,13,14]. The disease is currently spreading westwards from the current hot spots in eastern DR Congo, towards the Congo basin, putting the plantain belt of central and west Africa at risk. In Uganda, [1] reports 50% less production for 2014, compared to 2002 while area under banana declined by 39%

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