The risk of venous thromboembolism in oral contraceptive users: the role of genetic factors—a prospective cohort study of 240,000 women in the UK Biobank

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More than 150 million women worldwide use oral contraceptives. Women with inherited thrombophilia and carriers of certain thrombophilia gene variants, such as factor V Leiden and the prothrombin, are at an increased risk for venous thromboembolism, especially when combined with oral contraceptive use. Venous thromboembolism is a complex disorder involving many genetic risk factors, and recently, polygenic risk scores have been proposed to capture a significant proportion of the genetic risk of venous thromboembolism. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk for developing venous thromboembolism when initiating oral contraceptive use (first 2 years) and during continued use among women with a high genetic liability. We used a prospective study design in which 244,420 participants from the UK Biobank were followed from birth. The effect of oral contraceptive use during the first 2 years and in the remaining years of oral contraceptive use on the risk of developing venous thromboembolism was estimated using a Cox regression with a time-dependent exposure variable. Women were stratified according to their polygenic risk scores and whether they were carriers of factor V Leiden and/or prothrombin variants. When genetic risk was not considered, an increased risk for venous thromboembolism was observed during the first 2 years of oral contraceptive use (hazard ratio, 3.09; 95% confidence interval, 3.00-3.20) but not during continued use (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.05). However, when genetic risk was considered, women in the highest polygenic risk score category had a more pronounced risk of developing a venous thromboembolism during the first 2 years of oral contraceptive use (hazard ratio, 6.35; 95% confidence interval, 4.98-8.09), and a high risk was also observed among factor V Leiden (hazard ratio, 5.73; 95% confidence interval, 5.31-6.17) and prothrombin variant carriers (hazard ratio, 5.23; 95% confidence interval, 4.67 - 5.87). A high polygenic risk score in combination with being a factor V Leiden and prothrombin variant carrier conferred the highest risk for developing a venous thromboembolism during the first 2 years of oral contraceptive use (hazard ratio, 14.8; 95% confidence interval, 9.28-23.6). Women with a high genetic liability also had an increased risk during continued use but it was less pronounced, and the highest risk was conferred to carriers of both factor V Leiden and the prothrombin variant (hazard ratio, 4.93; 95% confidence interval, 3.16-7.7). Evaluating polygenic risk can identify additional venous thromboembolism risk that is not captured in the commonly investigated genes for inherited thrombophilia. Our results indicate that oral contraceptive use is associated with an increased risk for developing a venous thromboembolism, particularly among women with a high genetic predisposition, and that oral contraceptive use dramatically increases the risk thereof short after initiation of use, which decreases with continued use. This suggests that the polygenic risk score could be used to identify women who are at high risk for developing a venous thromboembolism and advise them on alternative methods of contraception.