Abstract
The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market combined with the increased intermittency of supply from renewable sources calls for an investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper makes use of a risk model to assess differences in time-use data from residential end-users in five different European electricity markets. Drawing on the Multinational Time-Use Survey database, it assesses risk in relation to the probability of electrical appliance use within households for five European countries. Findings highlight in which countries and for which activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is higher and link smart home solutions (automated load control, dynamic pricing and smart appliances) to different levels of peak demand risk.
Highlights
For decades energy regulators have focused on optimal market-based tools to facilitate access to energy supply in order to meet demand and reduce costs
This paper makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time-Use Survey (HETUS) Database with the aim to assess the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets
In addition to the institutional integration of electricity markets, new developments in renewable energy have led several Governments to consider a future European Supergrid, which will consist of an integrated power system network, where electricity demands from one country will be met by generation from another country [5]
Summary
For decades energy regulators have focused on optimal market-based tools to facilitate access to energy supply in order to meet demand and reduce costs. This paper makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time-Use Survey (HETUS) Database with the aim to assess the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets To this end, the risk of aggregate peak electricity demand is assessed in terms of changes in occupancy and time-use of appliances in five European countries. The paper introduces the issue of risk of aggregate peak electricity demand in European electricity markets (Section 2) It presents the methodology for assessing the risk of aggregate peak demand (Section 3). It presents the findings on the assessment of risks of aggregate peak demand (Section 4) It discusses the relevance of time-use data in relation to the risk of peak demand (Section 5). The paper concludes by discussing the implications of this work for future electricity markets (Section 6)
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