Abstract
Rabies was eliminated from Japan in 1957. In the 60 years since elimination, vaccination coverage has declined and dog ownership habits have changed. The purpose of this study was to assess the current risk of rabies spread in Japan. A spatially explicit transmission model was developed at the 1 km2 grid scale for Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures. Parameters associated with dog movement and bite injuries were estimated using historical records from Japan, and were used with previously published epidemiological parameters. The final epidemic size, efficacy of rabies contingency plans and the influence of dog owner responses to incursions were assessed by the model. Average outbreak sizes for dog rabies were 3.1 and 4.7 dogs in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Average number of bite injury cases were 4.4 and 6.7 persons in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Discontinuation of mandatory vaccination increased outbreak sizes in these prefectures. Sensitivity analyses showed that higher chance of unintentional release of rabid dogs by their owners (from 0.5 to 0.9 probability) increased outbreak size twofolds. Our model outputs suggested that at present, incursions of rabies into Japan are very unlikely to cause large outbreaks. Critically, the reaction of dog owners to their dogs developing rabies considerably impacts the course of outbreaks. Contingency measures should therefore include sensitisation of dog owners.
Highlights
IntroductionEvery year 59 000 people are estimated to die of rabies transmitted by domestic dogs, mostly in Asia and Africa [1]
The mean outbreak sizes, including the index cases, in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures under current vaccination coverage were 3.1 and 4.7, respectively (Fig. 2a and b), with 6.9% and 9.0% of outbreaks ⩾10 cases
Risk assessment using mathematical modelling is useful for planning disease control options, as models can demonstrate the potential outcomes of an introduction of an infectious disease and the changes on risk achieved by application of counter
Summary
Every year 59 000 people are estimated to die of rabies transmitted by domestic dogs, mostly in Asia and Africa [1]. The main reservoir hosts for rabies are domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries, but wild animals including foxes, raccoons, skunks and raccoon dogs maintain rabies in some parts of the world [2]. Measures for controlling dog rabies have included dog population management, movement restriction and vaccination [3]. Dog vaccination is the most effective control measure [4, 5]. Rabies mostly circulates in countries where large-scale dog vaccinations have not been undertaken, and has emerged in unvaccinated dog populations in previously rabiesfree areas [6, 7]
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