Abstract
This paper presents a critical assessment of the risk of spills from hazardous waste incineration aboard ocean going vessels. The likelihood of spills is estimated on the basis of recent domestic and worldwide chemical tanker experience. Results indicate that the probability of a spill is significant for projections of future ocean incineration demand. The severity of spills is explored using mathematical models of chemical transport and fate. This analysis is site specific and presents upper and lower bounds on the average pollutant concentration from spills of polychlorinated biphenyls in Mobile Bay. Severe impacts on the water quality and marine life in this region would result from spills of less than the capacity of a single incineration vessel. These findings demonstrate some inherent uncertainties in the analysis of these risks which bear strongly on the reliability of the program, the adequacy of contingency plans, and current liability requirements.
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