The Risk-Level Change of Dam Break Due to the Population Growth in the Dam Downstream

Abstract

This research intends to evaluate the risk-level change of dam break due to the number of population growth rates in the dam downstream. The number of population growth rates in the dam downstream area causes the number of populations that is impacted by disaster risk. In this research, there is conducted the danger class classification of dam failure based on the increasing number of population growth rates. In this research, there is conducted a class classification about the dam failure based on the increasing of population growth rate. The methodology is started from data collecting such as PMF design flood that is used for analyzing the dam break to be obtained the flood boundary of the dam downstream area, Map of the Digital Elevation Model that is for knowing the topography of the dam downstream area, population data which is obtained from BPS that is for knowing the population growth rate so it can predict the population number until the life time of the reservoir, and the land use data that is for knowing the population growth rate in the downstream dam area so it can be known the development of residence until the life time of reservoir. Then there is carried out the evaluation and assessment, which is based on the number of risk populations. The result show that there are 6 dams with very high danger level of the downstream damage level and the classification assessment of dams is extreme such as the dams of Bintang Bano, Rotiklot, Napungette, Lolak, Kuwil, and Pandanduri. However, the other four dams also show a very high danger level but in the assessment classification of dam is high (not extreme) such as the dams of Batu Nampar, Kengkang, Sepit, and Jangkih Jawa. The result is hoped can predict the danger classification of dam failure during the life time of the reservoir. Additionally, it can give input to the policymaker in determining the risk classification of dam failure. Moreover, it can be as one of the inputs in developing the risk classification model of dam failure.