Abstract
The water resource system is a non-linear system, featuring variability and randomness. Its risk assessment is very different from that of a linear system. Considering the effects of river flow on the pollutant diffusion, migration, and maximum tolerable concentration, a modified non-linear model (MNLM) was established, while the forcing terms were introduced to model functions for water pollution risk assessment. Taking the Weihe River Basin in China as an example, the risk assessment values were divided into five levels: negligible risk, acceptable risk, marginal risk, unacceptable risk, and catastrophic risk. As such, the risk variation of the river pollution interval was analyzed. The results showed that the BOD5, COD, and nitrite nitrogen are the main pollutants, leading to great risks of river water pollution. Moreover, it was found that the risk in the dry season is higher than that in the flood season, while the risk based on MNLM is 10.9% higher than that of linear methods. Verification indicates that MNLM is considered more suitable for risk assessment of complex river water pollution. However, the forcing term coefficient should be corrected for actual situations in different river water systems. The explored MNLM is expected to give insights into regional river water environment management.
Highlights
Water resource shortage and pollution have greatly prevented the sustainable use of water and it has become an important issue that requires efficient surface water quality monitoring and pollution risk assessment [1,2,3,4]
At each monitoring site in the Weihe River, a profile of water pollution risk assessment levels is showed in Previous reports and actual situations indicate that, from Xianyang City to Tongguan City, the industrial wastewater, domestic sewage, and non-point source pollution accounted for a great proportion of water pollution, which caused serious water quality deterioration in the middle and lower reaches of the Weihe River [9,12,13,32]
The modified non-linear model (MNLM) method is more convenient, accurate, and objective than other traditional methods for the risk assessment of the water pollution in river basins, which may improve our capability to make more accurate judgments about the main pollutants leading to water pollution risk assessment and risk degrees
Summary
Water resource shortage and pollution have greatly prevented the sustainable use of water and it has become an important issue that requires efficient surface water quality monitoring and pollution risk assessment [1,2,3,4]. The surface water environment in China has been facing a serious pollution crisis and the shortage of water resources is continuously exacerbating. Due to the excessive pollutant emissions, the water quality in most regions fails to meet the criteria of the national standard. Accurate assessment of river water pollution is of great significance to the water environment management and protection. The risk assessment of river water pollution should reveal the potential hazards, assess the feasibility of potential measures for handling the contaminants entering the water, and propose appropriate management measures
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