The Rising Wind: Is the Caucasus Emerging as a Hub for Terrorism, Smuggling, and Trafficking?

Abstract

This paper focuses on the routes of weapon, drug, and human trafficking in the Caucasus. It reviews the current regional security environment and provides an overview of the major violent non-state actors—such as terrorist groups, insurgency movements, and organized crime syndicates—operating across the region. The majority of the paper centers on the geography, patterns, and dynamics of the routes used by these groups in their trafficking activities. Finally, it discusses whether there are links between organized crime and the terrorist operations and analyzes the future evolution of the issue. The goal of the paper is to provide policymakers with information about the nature and challenges related to the trafficking routes in the Caucasus, as well as recommendations on how to find ways to contain and suppress the problem. The methodology employed involves the analysis of a broad variety of open sources, including printed and electronic media, the Internet, academic conferences and seminar proceedings, and interviews. Due to the scarcity of documented cases dealing with this issue, most of the conclusions are based on empirical reasoning. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not reflect the views or positions of any government structure. The current era of human history is heavily influenced, and is perhaps even defined, by globalization. This “Triple I” phenomenon—internationalization, interdependence, and interaction—can be described, in the simplest terms, as the “increasing volume and variety of cross-border flows of people, goods, services, capitals, and technologies” across the globe. However, there is also a dark side to this phenomenon. The positive effects of globalization are coupled with negative ones: the growing volume and variety of worldwide cross-border exchanges of dangerous criminals, illegal migrants, explosive ideas, deadly weapons, and lethal diseases. This specific pattern of globalization—a sort of “Globalization v. 2.0”—is accompanied by many side effects, uncertainties, and complexities. It is characterized by the emergence of a number of threats that were regarded as irrelevant and peripheral just fifteen years ago, particularly violent non-state actors. These actors include terrorist, insurgent, and criminal networks, which fester and flourish while the significance of the traditional nation-state diminishes. Today, these non-state actors represent one of the most prominent security challenges at all levels: global, regional, national, and local. Notably, they play a leading role in the field of illegal smuggling and trafficking of weapons, drugs, and humans across increasingly porous and transparent borders and seas, traveling between coun-