The Rise of the Military and the Prospects of Politico-Economic Developments in Egypt

Abstract

Although the 2011 uprisings in Egypt led to the fall of Hosni Mubarak, they have not yet been able to change the nature of the country’s political system. A year after the country’s first non-military president took office, Egypt’s political situation became more or less similar to the way it had been before 2011. The structure of the relationship between the state and the society in Egypt, highly affected by vast military influence, could be explained through Guillermo O'Donnell’s model of “Bureaucratic Authoritarianism”. The Islamists’ weakness in establishing a powerful government granted a proper excuse for the military to obtain direct rule over the country through a modern 21st-century coup d’etat. The basis for legitimizing this move, in addition to the Islamists’ weakness, was the claim that the 2011 coup d’etat had the same public support as the 1952 coup d’etat. Consequently, the military enacted legal mechanisms and introduced a presidential candidate who ultimately won the elections, giving back the military its previous position. It seems that the military authoritarian government in Egypt would enjoy relative legitimacy by focusing on providing economic and political stability, while paving the way for preserving its own long-term politico-economic interests. Therefore, it is likely that if the status quo– which relies upon widespread repression of the Islamists and the weakness and passivity of the liberal movements– is maintained, the authoritarian military rule over Egypt will continue.