Abstract
This study examined correlations of historical changes in diet and physical inactivity with the rise of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in Kenya. Historical data on diet, wage jobs by industry, urbanization, gross domestic product (GDP), and morbidity due to NCDs were extracted from Kenya Statistical s, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT), and the World Bank online database. These data were plotted and correlations between these factors and the incidence of different NCDs over time were evaluated. There was a rapid rise in the incidence of circulatory disease starting in 2001, and of hypertension and diabetes starting in 2008. Te rise of these NCDs, especially hypertension and diabetes, was accompanied over the same period by a rise in per capita GDP and physical inactivity (as measured by increased urbanization and declining proportion of agricultural and forestry wage jobs); a rise in per capita supply of rice, wheat and its products, and cooking oils; and a decline in the per capita supply of maize and sugar. In conclusion, the positive correlations between indicators of dietary consumption and physical inactivity and rates of hypertension, circulatory disease, and diabetes suggest that the rapid rise of NCDs in Kenya may be, in part, due to changes in these modifable factors.
Highlights
Major noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) include cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes [1,2]
Over 14 million people between the ages of 30 and 70 die every year from NCDs and 85% of these deaths are in lowand-middle-income countries (LMICs) where a majority of the world’s population live [3,4]
There has been an increase in the incidence of circulatory disease, hypertension, and diabetes in Kenya (Figure 1)
Summary
Major noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) include cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes [1,2]. Over 14 million people between the ages of 30 and 70 die every year from NCDs and 85% of these deaths are in lowand-middle-income countries (LMICs) where a majority of the world’s population live [3,4]. There has been an increase in the contribution of NCDs to the total disability- adjusted life years (from 20.3% in 2004 to 24.9% in 2012) and to total deaths (from 21.9% in 2004 to 26.6% in 2012) [6,7]. The leading NCD contributors to the all-cause deaths in Kenya are cardiovascular disease and cancer, which in 2012 contributed 8.6% and 7%, respectively [6,7,8]. In Kenya, diabetes caused a lower proportion of deaths (1.5% in 2012) [6,7,8], it is becoming increasingly important because its prevalence is fast growing in sub-Saharan Africa [9]
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