The Rise and Fall of the Secular Trend in Body Height in Sardinia: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Abstract

ObjectiveOver the last century, a progressive rise in stature, known as the ‘secular trend’, was documented worldwide, and especially in Sardinia, it has reached a peak in Europe. However, this situation recently ceased in several populations. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that the stature secular trend has significantly leveled off in the Sardinian younger generations. MethodsHeight measurements were retrieved from a database of patients undergoing digestive endoscopy, spanning generations between 1920 and 1990. Sex-specific principal component regression models were fitted to decompose stature variation into the contribution of age, period, and birth cohort. ResultsA steady increase in stature was observed in generations born after 1920, with an upward surge in those born after 1950. However, a significant leveling off was observed among cohorts born after 1970 among both sexes, as mean heights stabilized at 171.1 cm with a standard error (SE) of 0.9 cm among men and a mean of 160.1 cm (SE = 0.9 cm) among women. ConclusionOur findings support a significant slowdown in the secular trend of stature among the latest Sardinian generations. Several factors, including the consumption of low-quality food, lack of physical activity, and late motherhood, among others, may explain the decline in the secular trend.