The Right Incentive: How Perceived Scarcity May Stop Population Growth in Time

Abstract

Contrary to the views of Ken Smail humanity need not take action to slow rapid human population growth. People must instead be motivated to limit family size. Such motivation will come from the sense that economic opportunity is contracting is less than expected or is less than enjoyed by some significant reference group. Controlled comparisons within a culture area and among ethnic groups in a single society as well as chronological studies consistently show that contracting economic opportunity is followed by declining fertility. Both historically and cross-culturally adaptive responses including delayed marriage and birth spacing appear spontaneously when individuals perceive increasing environmental and economic constraints. Such motivation and response probably caused the large fertility declines observed in countries such as Sudan and Burma (Myanmar) where neither introduced contraceptive programs nor economic development are possible explanations. The author cites examples of low fertility in Italy Spain and Portugal and the cases of former East Germany Malawi Malaysia the West Indies and China.