The Revolution in Argentina

Abstract

IT is commonly suggested-or implied-that Argentina's economic and social problems were created by President Peron. Lest we should imagine that the present 'de-Peronizing' of the republic will by itself eliminate those problems, I wish to place two or three of them in a wider setting and to show that any modern President of Argentina would have to deal with them, in one fashion or another, whether Peron had existed or not. In developing my limited-and, necessarily, controversial-theme, I shall not be providing, of course, a complete and balanced picture of Peron's Argentina. First, let us consider the problem of petroleum, which illustrates the trend and prejudices which caused such discomfiture to British and other foreign investors. Although, for political reasons, Peron did foster the nationalistic sentiments already existing in his own country, this attitude was not-and is not-confined to Argentina. I was in Brazil at the time of the presidential elections last October (I955). Brazil has very considerable oil resources, but she produces from her own wells only about 3,000 barrels a day, whereas she consumes about i6o,ooo barrels a day, and demand is growing year by year with the development of industry and transport and the mechanization of agriculture. So the importing of oil represents a huge drain on the country's earnings of foreign currency, especially at a time when world prices for local exports of agricultural produce have declined. The Brazilians cannot quickly increase their output of petroleum unless they receive the assistance of foreign capital, equipment, and technical skill; and they are perfectly well aware of this. But in the past the masses have been taught that in other countries foreign oil companies have exploited the local population, and this idea has become so well-established that no politician-needing the popular vote-dare suggest that today means may be devised for ensuring that foreign investors shall serve the national interest. On the contrary, in Brazil last October all the presidential candidates used the slogan 'The Petrol is Ours'-meaning, that no one else shall touch it-though one candidate at least said, rather privately, that if he were elected, he would somehow modify the absurdly nationalistic law which is hampering the expansion of oil production. One of the clauses of Brazil's petroleum law, which makes oil exploration a State monopoly, even prevents a Brazilian citizen who is married to a foreigner from investing in the State oil company. The Argentines are no more sensitive on this point than the Brazilians. And Argentina is urgently in need of a rapid and substantial increase in I66