The revenge of districts that don’t matter: inequality and elections in Rome from 2000 to 2023

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article examines whether the theory of the ‘revenge of the places that don’t matter’ applies to urban districts within a metropolis like Rome, Italy. To contribute to this body of literature, we test the hypothesis of a ‘deprivation loop’ arising from local issues related to socio-economic marginality and urban deprivation. To explore this hypothesis, we analyse the relationships among compositional and contextual indicators using principal components analysis. We then use the resulting factor components as explanatory variables in multiple linear regression analyses of voting patterns. Between 2000 and 2023, electoral outcomes reveal that left-wing parties perform best in semi-central, densely populated districts, while right-wing and populist parties gain more support in low-density, sprawling outskirts. Other areas exhibit more variable trends following the turning points of 2008 and 2016. Our findings indicate that certain territorial determinants of discontent enhance electoral support for right-wing or populist parties by channelling protest votes. Key factors include residence in new sprawling districts with many young households, in socially challenged and marginal areas with a high prevalence of precarious or underemployed workers (often foreigners), and generally in ‘left behind’ places.