The Returns on Government and Corporate Securities with Prices Propped up by Central Bank Purchases using Unlimited Quantities of Currencies with Less Intrinsic Value than Toilet Paper

Abstract

This paper evaluates several investment scenarios which could result from the rather dire economic situation existing in early 2020 caused by the coronavirus pandemic that is restricting economic production of goods and services at the same time that cost-push factors and the unlimited creation of money by central banks worldwide create upward inflationary pressures. Just as during the similar situation in Germany in 1923, the nominal prices of both equities and fixed-rate instruments might be propped up, but all security investments would generate highly negative real returns short-term. Only stock prices might eventually match the inflation rate.