The Return to Capital in Capital-Scarce Countries

Abstract

In this paper, we use firm-level data to investigate the link between the marginal product of capital and financial rates of return across countries. Computed estimates from financial statement data show that capital-scarce countries display higher marginal products of capital. However, inflation-adjusted financial returns are roughly equal across capital-scarce and capital-abundant countries. The divergence between the marginal products of capital and financial returns implies that there may be little incentive for capital to flow to capital-scarce countries. We suggest that domestic capital-accumulation frictions such as sufficiently large capital adjustment costs can decouple financial rates of return from the marginal product of capital across countries. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.