Abstract
Changes in agricultural policy may have a rapid impact, even on landscapes which have taken millennia to form. Here we explore the potential impact of the UK leaving the EU as a catalyst for profound changes in the pastoral landscapes of Wales. Impending change of the trading regime governing agricultural produce, concurrent with public pressure to use agricultural subsidies for environmental goals, may lead to unforeseen consequences for the Welsh natural environment. We employ a combination of change demand modelling and a ‘story and simulation approach’ to project the effect of five hypothetical plausible scenarios on land use and land use change in Wales by 2030. We show that the most extreme trade scenario would result in a significant expansion of broadleaf woodland across much of Wales. By contrast, the ‘green futures’ scenario introduced to supersede the Common Agricultural Policy, results in significant expansion of woodland but not at the level seen with the more extreme trade scenarios.
Highlights
Natural ecosystems are exposed to constantly changing natural variations in climatic conditions, which drives the long-term adaptation of dominant vegetation types
Irrespective of the outcome of the trade deal that eventually emerges between the UK and the EU, this paper demonstrates how novel techniques can be used to project the consequences of probable changes in policy that will affect land use in Wales, and other parts of the UK, over the coming decades
We show that Brexit and associated policy changes will have a significant potential to rapidly alter land use & land cover (LULC) in Wales
Summary
Natural ecosystems are exposed to constantly changing natural variations in climatic conditions, which drives the long-term adaptation of dominant vegetation types. Post-glaciation natural succession in Wales resulted a landscape covered by forest; the wildwood in existence about 6000 years ago [1]. Human habitation has left a significant mark on the Welsh landscape, the current forest cover stands at only around 15% [3], and many forest-dwelling species have declined or disappeared from the country. The Welsh landscape has been profoundly changed by the historical expansion of predominantly sheep grazing, to the extent that much of the upland landscape is treeless. The pastoral system of sheep rearing has produced a rich and interesting cultural landscape in the ‘fridd’ landscapes that evolved on marginal land between the uplands and the lowlands [4,5,6,7]
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