The response of the North Pacific jet and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of ozone over western North America to RCP8.5 climate forcing

Abstract

Abstract. Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) is an important source of ozone for the troposphere, particularly over western North America. STT in this region is predominantly controlled by a combination of the variability and location of the Pacific jet stream and the amount of ozone in the lower stratosphere, two factors which are likely to change if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. Here we use Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model experiments with a tracer of stratospheric ozone (O3S) to study how end-of-the-century Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs), in isolation and in combination, influence STT of ozone over western North America relative to a preindustrial control background state. We find that O3S increases by up to 37 % during late winter at 700 hPa over western North America in response to RCP8.5 forcing, with the increases tapering off somewhat during spring and summer. When this response to RCP8.5 greenhouse gas forcing is decomposed into the contributions made by future SSTs alone versus future GHGs alone, the latter are found to be primarily responsible for these O3S changes. Both the future SSTs alone and the future GHGs alone accelerate the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which modifies extratropical lower-stratospheric ozone mixing ratios. While the future GHGs alone promote a more zonally symmetric lower-stratospheric ozone change due to enhanced ozone production and some transport, the future SSTs alone increase lower-stratospheric ozone predominantly over the North Pacific via transport associated with a stationary planetary-scale wave. Ozone accumulates in the trough of this anomalous wave and is reduced over the wave's ridges, illustrating that the composition of the lower-stratospheric ozone reservoir in the future is dependent on the phase and position of the stationary planetary-scale wave response to future SSTs alone, in addition to the poleward mass transport provided by the accelerated Brewer–Dobson circulation. Further, the future SSTs alone account for most changes to the large-scale circulation in the troposphere and stratosphere compared to the effect of future GHGs alone. These changes include modifying the position and speed of the future North Pacific jet, lifting the tropopause, accelerating both the Brewer–Dobson circulation's shallow and deep branches, and enhancing two-way isentropic mixing in the stratosphere.