Abstract
The effects of prior climate change on the distribution of buffalo breeds remain uncertain. We measured the changes in distribution of 29 buffalo breeds over the past 50 years, and examined whether these changes can be attributed to climate change in China. Long-term records of buffalo breed distributions, grey relational analysis, the fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of some buffalo breeds have mainly shifted northward or eastward or southward, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Drive by climatic factors over the past years, the distribution boundaries and distribution centers of certain buffalo breeds mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward with fluctuation. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some buffalo breeds. The changes in the northern boundary of 2 buffalo breeds, the change in the eastern boundary of distribution of 1 breed, and the change in the distribution center latitude coordinate of 1 breed can be attributed to climate change.
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